Global prevalence of myopia Myopia and high myopia were estimated to affect 27% (1893 million) and 2.8% (170 million) of the world population, respectively, in 2010. According to published studies, the prevalence of myopia is highest in east Asia, where China, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Singapore have a prevalence of approximately 50%, and lower in Australia, Europe and north and south America (2). Preliminary projections based on these prevalence data and the corresponding United Nations population figures (12), and accounting for the effects of age and time, indicate that myopia and high myopia will affect 52% (4949 million) and 10.0% (925 million), respectively, of the world’s population by 2050 (2) (Figs. 1 and 2). Fig. 1.
Numbers of cases (blue) and prevalence (red) of myopia worldwide between 2000 and 2050 Results: Myopia - Now and in 2050 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Myopia prevalence (%) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 Numbers of myopes (Millions) 2000 22% 28% 2010 33% 2020 40% 2030 46% 2040 52% 2050 Numbers of Myopes Myopia prevalence (%) BrienHoldenVisonlnstitute Adapted from Holden et al. 2016 Ophthalmology 1343 1914 2584 3337 4156 4949 Year For more information, please contact: Report of the Joint World Health Organization–Brien Holden Vision Institute Global Scientific Meeting on Myopia IMPACT OF INCREASING PREVALENCEOF MYOPIA AND HIGH MYOPIA 6 The impact of myopia and high myopia Fig. 2. Numbers of people worldwide with high myopia (blue) and prevalence (red) between 2000 and 2050 Countries were grouped according to the 21 regions of the WHO Global Burden of Disease programme (13)
(see Annex 3) to determine regional differences in the prevalence of myopia and high myopia in smaller geographical areas than the large administrative and political WHO regions. The WHO regional structure will, however, be important for policy implementation. The model used to make projections (2) gave the results described below. • In 2000, the prevalence of myopia did not exceed 50% in any of the regions but, by 2050, the prevalence will be ≥ 50% in 57% of the countries, if current trends continue. • Countries in which the prevalence of myopia has been estimated and measured as low in the past (e.g. India) will have major increases by 2050.
• In 2050, the prevalence of myopia will be much higher in high-income regions of the AsiaPacific, in east Asia and in south-east Asia, and the prevalence in high-income north America, southern Latin America, all of Europe, north Africa, the Middle East and about 30% of Africa will be similar to that in Asia today. The prevalence of high myopia is predicted to increase to 24% in all the Global Burden of Disease regions and in high-income Asia-Pacific countries by 2050. • According to Global Burden of Disease estimates, uncorrected distance refractive error is the second largest cause of blindness and the leading cause of moderate and severe vision impairment (53%) (1).
The estimated cost of uncorrected refractive error in terms of direct and indirect loss of world productivity is 269 billion international dollars (I$) (14) (US$ 202 billion (15)), and the estimated cost of addressing the problem is US$ 28 billion over 5 years (15). On the basis of current estimates and demographic trends, myopia is the main cause of distance refractive error and will probably continue to be so in the future. • Reducing the rate of myopia progression by 50% could reduce the prevalence of high myopia by up to 90%. Results:
High Myopia - Now and in 2050 BrienHoldenVisonlnstitute12 10 8 6 4 2 0 high myopia prevalence (%) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Numbers of high myopia (Millions) 2000 2.2% 3.0% 2010 4.0% 2020 5.0% 2030 7.0% 2040 10.0% 2050 136 205 300 432 635 925 Numbers of Myopes Myopia prevalence (%) Year Adapted from Holden et al. 2016 Ophthalmology For more information, please contact: Report of the Joint World Health Organization–Brien Holden Vision Institute Global Scientific Meeting on Myopia IMPACT OF INCREASING PREVALENCEOF MYOPIA AND HIGH MYOPI.